Thursday, January 26, 2012

It has taken 17 days of trading, but we finally had our first day of real selling in 2012. Apparent euphoria over the Federal Reserve's zero-percent interest-rate announcement continued early on, but we topped out in the first 30 minutes and then traded down the balance of the day. We closed near the lows for only the second time this year.

Even though it was the poorest day of the year, it still wasn't that bad. Breadth was only slightly negative and the point losses were mild. The biggest negative was that we had an intraday reversal to the downside after a strong start, which is a change in character.

Whether or not this turns out to be a short-term top will depend on the dip buyers. They have supported this market diligently and that typically doesn't end swiftly. There usually comes a point, however, when the weakness is bad enough to cause the dip-buyers to lose confidence, and that is when a more severe correction often develops.