Thursday, December 15, 2011

I keep expecting some sort of sharp snapback rally, but the lack of energy in this market is discouraging. What we need is a move that is strong enough to cause the underinvested bulls and the active shorts to think that the Santa Claus rally is on and that they better hurry and jump on board or they will miss out. We need some sort of spark to ignite the upside movement, but instead we continue to hear pessimism out of Europe that overshadows some not-horrible economic news.

One good thing about this action is that it is increasing the level of mis-positioning. People are giving up on this market simply because the action is so dead, so there is a good supply of buyers to push things along if we can build a little momentum.

For the ridiculously short-termers, the big risk in this market is that the very slow action is going to cause market players to just give up and close the books on 2011. It has been a rough year for many, and the desire is strong to take a break and start fresh after the holidays.