Saturday, September 24, 2011


The one thing that we have a bull market in is comparisons to the fall of 2008.

Today we saw some of the worst action since the bank crisis. The bulls are trying to dismiss that sort of talk but when the selling is this severe, you have to be at least a little worried.

The point loss was big, volume heavy and breadth very poor, but what is probably the worst statistic is that we had 15 stocks hitting new 52-week highs while 1450 were hitting new lows. The very high level of new lows makes it clear that this is a market that has not been healthy for a while. The vast majority of stocks have been struggling, notwithstanding the big bounce last week.

The one positive the bulls can point to is that negativity is extremely high. On the other hand, just because folks are negative doesn't mean they have already sold. It takes a real leap to conclude that the bulls have all been washed out, especially since they were feeling pretty good just two days ago.