Tuesday, August 2, 2011


First-half economic weakness was explained away by the Japanese earthquake/tsunami, the spike in oil prices and the loss of confidence surrounding the circus in Washington, D.C.

What is the explanation for the renewed weakness?

My view is that it is the emergence of the nontraditional headwinds to growth and the associated confusion and loss of confidence surrounding the budget and debt-ceiling circus in Washington, D.C.

Slowing growth doesn't eliminate the possibility of a market advance.

Collins Stewart's Tony Dwyer, writes today about slowing growth (but no "double dip"), in his missive, "The Market Is Down but Not Out." Below is a synopsis of the core positive factors in "The Gospel According To Dwyerama":

1. The equity market is most closely correlated to the direction of earnings, which remains very positive.
2. The direction of earnings is driven by economic activity.
3. Economic activity is driven by the steepness of the yield curve.
4. The steepness of the yield curve is driven by Fed policy that would be considered accommodative even on an uptick.
5. Fed policy is driven by core inflation, which is historically low.

"This is very important stuff, so we are really going to go over it for the next 45 minutes and then come to a decision."

-- Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.)


Structural unemployment, government spending cuts and future rate rises will limit the market's upside.

"The four most dangerous words in investing are 'this time it's different.'"

-- Sir John Templeton

While corporate profits are up substantially from recession lows and back to impressive and near-record levels, to a large degree, the factors that contributed to that growth could create headwinds to growth in the future.

Below are three such headwinds (jobs, the deficit, interest rates) that have importantly contributed to growth over the past decade but, perversely, lie on the horizon over the next decade as headwinds. These three factors create a fallacy of composition in the way the bullish cabal look at today's economy.

The modo hoc (or "just this") fallacy is the error of assessing meaning to an existent based on the constituent properties of its material makeup while omitting the matter's arrangement. In today's economy the fallacy of composition is that the very source of past profits and growth becomes a headwind to future profits and growth.

1. The drag of structural unemployment: Since companies couldn't control the costs of raw materials, they have opted to improve productivity and cut costs primarily by reducing jobs or by making their current workforce work longer and harder. As economic growth decelerates, the drag of elevated and structural unemployment will serve as a constant headwind ahead.

2. The drag of government spending cuts: Corporate profits are also up in part because of the ballooning deficit, as the government has overspent. So it follows that the necessary spending cuts (aimed at reducing the size of the deficit) will adversely impact prospective economic growth and, in turn, corporate sales and profits.

3. The drag of future rate rises: Finally, corporate profit growth has been spurred on and elevated by the most aggressive monetary policy moves in history (quantitative easing and zero interest rate policy). The generational lows in interest rates have enabled corporations to roll over debt cheaply, have allowed consumers to borrow (on installment and mortgage debt) at unprecedented low interest rates and have kept government borrowing costs low relative to the size of a ballooning deficit. While all three borrowers have become addicted to low rates, it is not likely a permanent condition. Though it is clear that rates will be pegged low for at least the next year, it is unreasonable to expect interest rates to be low forever. The withdrawal from artificially low interest rates could be growth- and profit-deflating painful in the fullness of time.

This future profile of lumpy economic and profit growth doesn't preclude market gains in the months and year ahead. Contained current inflation (and tame inflation expectations), a market-friendly Fed, low real and nominal interest rates, healthy corporate balance sheets, stable bank swap and credit spreads, negative investor sentiment (as reflected in low invested positions of individual investors and the hedge fund community) and excellent profit and dividend growth (even in the face of sluggish GDP growth) are all constructive factors that support stock prices and likely diminish the case for material market risk from current levels.