Friday, July 8, 2011

Many Caught Out Of Position?

The market moved up for the eighth straight day following a better-than-expected ADP jobs number and some strong retail sales reports. While fundamental news like this has been the headline reason for the stunning 8% surge, the real driving force has been market players who simply weren't in position for such a big move. Many thought the big push into the end of the quarter would quickly reverse. When it didn't, the bears were caught in a painful trap.

Market players engaged in minor profit-taking during the final hour as they contemplated the possibility of a "sell the news" reaction to the jobs number tomorrow morning. Expectations jumped sharply today after the ADP report, with at least one economist raising his forecast to 175,000 jobs created from 100,000.

The bulls aren't too worried about a rest as they are now convinced that the worst is over and it is clear sailing into earnings season. The bears have been flattened and seen all their fundamental arguments ignored again, so they have to be wondering about the wisdom of betting against this beast.