Thoughts

Astonished

I am astonished that the S&P futures are now 50 points above their Sunday night low.

Regardless of one's view on the markets, a move of this magnitude was nearly impossible to predict.

Away from the economy, interest rates, etc., Mubarak's speech raises more questions than answers.

His decision to stay in power until the election later in the year fails to address the demands of the Egyptian people and is full of doubletalk.

I would rate his speech as more than slightly (but not extremely) market negative over the short term especially in light of (1) his defiant tone, (2) the magnitude of the market's move, and (3) the potential for more uncertainty in the months ahead leading to the country's elections.

Tick-Tock

All indications suggest that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's days are numbered.

I suspect a relatively painless political "transition" is right around the corner.

Gap in Prices Paid

A good beat in ISM Manufacturing, but the real headline is the huge gap in prices paid in ISM.

Bill Ackman Gunning for Best Buy?

I'm hearing that Pershing Square's Bill Ackman has taken a filing position in BBY.

Over there, the U.K. Manufacturing PMI rose to a higher-than-consensus 62%, an all-time record. Orders were strong and at a new high.

Eurozone unemployment remained high, but at 10%, it was a slightly less-than-expected reading.

Germany's unemployment fell more than expected, bringing the country's unemployment rate below 7.5%.

Meanwhile, rising prices were seen in South Korea and in Thailand, with food and energy prices the source of the pressure.

Finally China's Manufacturing PMI came in less than expected and dropped from December.

Yahoo! for Baidu?

After BIDU's off-the-chart results, it's difficult to see how YHOO's shares don't work.

Gabelli & Co. initiates YHOO with a buy this morning sees 41% upside.

Egypt Was an Upside Spark

long YHOO