Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Commentary For Friday, 5/22/09...

We have had classic holiday trading today, and now we are seeing some profit-taking to close things out - the negativity was probably enhanced due to "downgrade" fears of our country's debt. Whatever - we're still the best risk out there. The groups that turned out to be the traders' favorites today were small-cap biotechnology and agriculture. Stocks such as OGXI, SEED, VNDA and GRO attracted the hot money today, but it was primarily oil and energy that helped to keep the senior indices up.

One of the key themes this week was weakness in the U.S. dollar. That drove gold stocks higher and also helped agriculture and other metals that are mainly mined overseas. It is a bit troubling to see bonds act so poorly. Just take a look at the chart of the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond, TLT, which is back to where it was last November. Higher interest rates are going to be a headwind for equities if it continues.

Next week we're going to see some signs of how much more juice the bulls might have. They have been slowing down lately but haven't run out of gas yet.

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