Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Bear Market Rally Sustained

After the big day on Tuesday, the most important thing technically that could happen today was that we didn't give back too much of yesterday's gains. It didn't matter whether there was strong follow-through as long as there was some underlying support.

We did have a little selling in the closing minutes, but overall it was a pretty good day for the bulls. Breadth was on the plus side with financials and technology leading. Oils saw pressure and gold bounced, which are negatives, but it was fairly contained.

Driving this move are the big-caps: GS, AMZN, POT and AAPL. My biggest worry about the market at this point is that we really don't have any leadership sectors. We see some action in big-cap technology and banks, but it is short-term money and not the sort of leadership that is likely to be sustained and take the broader market with it. I'd really like to see technology stocks or some other group step up and keep moving steadily, but it is still very early in the game for that to occur.

We had a good start to a decent bear market rally on Tuesday. Today didn't change things, but we have a lot of overhead resistance and bad news to overcome. The bulls have a slight advantage now, but they still have to prove they have some juice and can sustain some upside. It is going to take a lot of effort and the news flow is likely to remain challenging.

No comments: