Thursday, October 16, 2008

mkt today - another wild one

The roller-coaster ride continues. One day it looks like the total destruction of our financial system, and the next they can't buy them fast enough.

Volume picked up and, technically, with the dip this morning, we have a half-decent attempt at testing the lows of last Friday. The intraday reversal on higher volume is also a positive, as is the strong finish.

We now have some earnings reports to contend with, and it looks like Google is ok. The initial response is positive, but the conference call will tell the story even though they don't give any earnings guidance.

We also have IBM, which is going to tell the tale about international business. This quarter they won't benefit from currency gains, which has been pressuring the stock.

So far this earnings season, the market has not been "buying the bad news," although expectations are obviously very low. We'll have a better sense of the mood tomorrow, as we digest the GOOG and IBM reports.

Traders are going to be hopeful that the action today was the pullback and retest that gives us a good low. I'm not convinced it will be that easy, but with the way this market is moving around, we could have some pretty big upside moves very quickly if we get just a slight respite from the doom and gloom.

Keep things short term for now, and don't worry about building up big long positions, and you'll be fine.

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