Tuesday, July 1, 2008

About Shark Watch

Tuesday, July 1 - 4:42 PM

Afternoon Comments

Although many market players were fully anticipating a rally today as the new quarter got under way, it certainly came about in a way that few expected. The gap lower at the open gave investors a good opportunity to buy weakness, and while that proved to be a decent bet after the ISM numbers, any action to the upside was to be short-lived as we rolled right back over and hit new lows.

However, some “not-as-horrible-as-expected” sales numbers from GM triggered was looked to be some broad-based short-covering, triggering a sizable rally out of negative territory. Like clockwork, the serial bottom callers came out in force, telling us that the bottom was in. Still, while that is certainly not out of the question and pegging exact bottoms can generate god profits, consistent success in the market only comes from disciplined money management and a methodical approach.

There are only two trading sessions left this week and with many investors turning their attention to fireworks and barbeques, we suspect that we are going to have some typical holiday-style trading coming up. Of course, the jobs report is due out Thursday, so that has the potential to keep things tricky. Our job at this point is to pay attention to the pricing action and make sure our precious capital is protected. If the market is really going to start improving from here, there will be plenty of time to hop on board once we have technical confirmation.

Have a great evening and we will see you tomorrow

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